[Note:  Derek Ferreira helped edit this article. Additionally, William J. Baumol was my instructor at NYU.] Background Here are some background articles for more in-depth understanding of Baumol's Cost Disease: Wikipedia Entry   Vox article The Exaggerated Role Of 'Cost Disease' In Soaring College Tuition What is it? Baumol's Cost Disease is phenomenon where real wages increase in a sector or a job that has seen little or no productivity growth.   It was first described and analyzed in a study by William J. Baumol and William G. Bowen in the 1960s. You may be tempted to immediately point to inflation as a simple explanation for this. But note that we have already ruled out inflation by specifying "real wages" above. (You may already know that when economists use the word "real", they generally mean "inflation adjusted" or "excluding inflation".) So you should be visualizing a case where wages for a particular job where there has b

 Greetings! Thanks for stopping in to my blog. This nascent blog is mostly experimental and is only just getting started. I will be using this blog as a vehicle for experimenting with automation (automating forecasts and publishing them with little human interventions). This effort hasn't really started yet. Truth Statement My missions in this blog are (in order of priority): To estimate Truth (with info, data, and analysis (causal inferences and forecasting)) To help others better estimate Truth by offering clarity and information To support the brisk exchange of ideas and information relating to Economics and Econometrics That may sound overly idealistic or sappy, but I won't apologize for that. Promise :  I will not prioritize any goals in this blog over accurately estimating Truth and helping others to do so. I will not quash any hypothesis or idea to accommodate political alliances, cliques, social standing, wishful opinions, or personal feelings.  Here, I

Lake Travis Forecast Results Author: David Ferreira (Resume) Data Source:   Lower Colorado River Authority This page will be a central location where readers can return to check the accuracy of my forecasts. Forecast Performance Forecast Date Forecast Period Point Forecast Actual %Δ Nov-1-2021 Dec-2021 664.8 662.2 0.39% Nov-1-2021 Nov-2021 664.0 662.9 0.17% Aug-2-2021 Oct-2021 665.1 663.1 0.30% Aug-2-2021 Sep-2021 663.4 663.8 -0.06% Aug-2-2021 Aug-2021 664.5 666.1 -0.24% May-1-2021 Jul-2021 655.8 666.6 -1.65% May-1-2021 Jun-2021 658.2 665.6 -1.12% May-1-2021

  Lake Travis Monthly Mean Water Level Forecast (as of 11/01/21 ) Author: David Ferreira (Resume) Data Sources:  LCRA, Texas Water Development Board (WaterDataforTexas.org) Forecast Fig. 1: 6-month forecast with 80% and 95% confidence intervals. Forecast Data Table 1 shows our mean forecast (“Point Forecast”) and 80% and 95% confidence intervals. ( Confidence intervals explained. ) We encourage readers to view our forecast as a range, rather than a specific number. However, we are excited about the accuracy of our Point Forecasts and encourage readers to compare those data to the LCRA’s own median projections*. Period Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 Actual Delta % Delta Nov-21 664.0 658.7 669.4 655.9 672.2  662.9  1.1