Lake Travis Water Level Forecast (as of 03/01/22 ) Author: David Ferreira (Resume) Data Sources:  LCRA, Texas Water Development Board (WaterDataforTexas.org) Forecast Fig. 1: 6-month forecast with 80% and 95% confidence intervals. Forecast Data Table 1 shows our mean forecast (“Point Forecast”) and 80% and 95% confidence intervals. ( Confidence intervals explained. ) We encourage readers to view our forecast as a range, rather than a specific number. However, we are excited about the accuracy of our Point Forecasts and encourage readers to compare our mean forecast to the LCRA’s own median projections*. Table 1: Mean forecast and confidence intervals by month (6-month forecast) Period Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 Actual Delta % Delta Mar-22 660.9 655.6 666.3 652.8 669.1     ...

Lake Travis Forecast Results Author: David Ferreira (Resume) Data Source:   Lower Colorado River Authority This page will be a central location where readers can return to check the accuracy of my forecasts. Forecast Performance Forecast Date Forecast Period Point Forecast Actual %Δ Nov-1-2021 Dec-2021 664.8 662.2 0.39% Nov-1-2021 Nov-2021 664.0 662.9 0.17% Aug-2-2021 Oct-2021 665.1 663.1 0.30% Aug-2-2021 Sep-2021 663.4 663.8 -0.06% Aug-2-2021 Aug-2021 664.5 666.1 -0.24% May-1-2021 Jul-2021 655.8 666.6 -1.65% May-1-2021 Jun-2021 658.2 665.6 -1.12% May-1-20...

  Lake Travis Monthly Mean Water Level Forecast (as of 11/01/21 ) Author: David Ferreira (Resume) Data Sources:  LCRA, Texas Water Development Board (WaterDataforTexas.org) Forecast Fig. 1: 6-month forecast with 80% and 95% confidence intervals. Forecast Data Table 1 shows our mean forecast (“Point Forecast”) and 80% and 95% confidence intervals. ( Confidence intervals explained. ) We encourage readers to view our forecast as a range, rather than a specific number. However, we are excited about the accuracy of our Point Forecasts and encourage readers to compare those data to the LCRA’s own median projections*. Period Point Forecast Lo 80 Hi 80 Lo 95 Hi 95 Actual Delta % Delta Nov-21 664.0 658.7 669.4 655.9 672.2  662.9 ...